美国应从罗马帝国的衰落中汲取教训

美国应从罗马帝国的衰落中汲取教训 

英国金融时报

美国政府的高级检查人员警告说: 美国政府因为其在财政赤字, 长期健保资金不足, 移民和海外军事承诺方面不可持续的政策和行为而备受煎熬. 如果不采取行动, 就会酿成危机.

美国政府总会计师David Walker发表了一份报告, 对他的国家未来估计非常灰暗. 在报告中, 他列举了一些他称为不寒而栗的长期景象.

这其中包括戏剧性的加税, 政府服务的削减和外国政府大规模抛售美国债券.

与罗马帝国的终结相提并论, Walker警告美国现在的状况及拖垮罗马的因素极为相似, 诸如国内道德价值和政治文明(?)的下降, 在外国土地上军事存在过度, 而对国外军事存在信心过度, 以及中央政府在财政上不负责任.

"看上去很熟悉吗?" Walker说："我的观点, 现在正是时候, (我们需要)学习历史和采取行动确保美国成为第一个经过时间检验(的国家)."

Walker的观点很有分量, 因为他是无党派人士, 负责政府会计局(?), 而该局被视为美国国会的调查部门.

该局大多数的研究由立法机关委托, 大约有百分之十, 包括他最新警告的这一项是由他本人推动的.

在财经时报的采访中, Walker说以前他曾经提到过一些问题, 但他现在想"提高声音". 这些问题中有一些对政府中的一些人过于敏感而不能提及他们的名字.
"我试图发出警告, 唤醒(大家)."他说:"作为总会计师,我有能力大尺度地观察, 能够提出一些别人不愿而在很多情况下不能够提出的问题."

"其中一项关注很显然, 我们是一个伟大的国家, 但我们面对主要的持续性挑战, 却没有认真对待."Walker说, 他在克林顿当政时被任命, 有15年任期.
财政不平衡意味着美国正在通往债务爆炸的路上.

婴儿潮一代正在退休, 螺旋上涨的健保费用, 直线下降的储蓄率和越来越依赖外国借款人, 我们正面对前所未有的财政危险."
目前美国对教育, 能源, 环境, 移民和伊拉克的政策不能持续.

我们的繁荣对我们的基础设施提出了更高的要求. 从高路机场到上下水系统的现代化需要数以十亿记的美元.
Walker说明年春天他可以为总统参选人们做简报.

"他们需要将财政责任和社会公正作为最优先(的任务)之一. 如果他们能这样做, 我想我们还有机会扭转局面; 如果他们不这样做, 我想一场严重危机的危险会很高.

Learn from the fall of Rome, US warned
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/80fa0a2c-49ef-11dc-9ffe-0000779fd2ac.html

By Jeremy Grant in Washington

Published: August 14 2007 00:06 | Last updated: August 14 2007 00:06

The US government is on a ‘burning platform’ of unsustainable policies and practices with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare underfunding, immigration and overseas military commitments threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon, the country’s top government inspector has warned.

David Walker, comptroller general of the US, issued the unusually downbeat assessment of his country’s future in a report that lays out what he called “chilling long-term simulations”.

These include “dramatic” tax rises, slashed government services and the large-scale dumping by foreign governments of holdings of US debt.

Drawing parallels with the end of the Roman empire, Mr Walker warned there were “striking similarities” between America’s current situation and the factors that brought down Rome, including “declining moral values and political civility at home, an over-confident and over-extended military in foreign lands and fiscal irresponsibility by the central government”.

“Sound familiar?” Mr Walker said. “In my view, it’s time to learn from history and take steps to ensure the American Republic is the first to stand the test of time.”

Mr Walker’s views carry weight because he is a non-partisan figure in charge of the Government Accountability Office, often described as the investigative arm of the US Congress.

While most of its studies are commissioned by legislators, about 10 per cent – such as the one containing his latest warnings – are initiated by the comptroller general himself.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Walker said he had mentioned some of the issues before but now wanted to “turn up the volume”. Some of them were too sensitive for others in government to “have their name associated with”.

“I’m trying to sound an alarm and issue a wake-up call,” he said. “As comptroller general I’ve got an ability to look longer-range and take on issues that others may be hesitant, and in many cases may not be in a position, to take on.

“One of the concerns is obviously we are a great country but we face major sustainability challenges that we are not taking seriously enough,” said Mr Walker, who was appointed during the Clinton administration to the post, which carries a 15-year term.

The fiscal imbalance meant the US was “on a path toward an explosion of debt”.

“With the looming retirement of baby boomers, spiralling healthcare costs, plummeting savings rates and increasing reliance on foreign lenders, we face unprecedented fiscal risks,” said Mr Walker, a former senior executive at PwC auditing firm.

Current US policy on education, energy, the environment, immigration and Iraq also was on an “unsustainable path”.

“Our very prosperity is placing greater demands on our physical infrastructure. Billions of dollars will be needed to modernise everything from highways and airports to water and sewage systems. The recent bridge collapse in Minneapolis was a sobering wake-up call.”

Mr Walker said he would offer to brief the would-be presidential candidates next spring.

“They need to make fiscal responsibility and inter-generational equity one of their top priorities. If they do, I think we have a chance to turn this around but if they don’t, I think the risk of a serious crisis rises considerably”.

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