以下是本博老何信箱昨日收到的一封读者来信
主题:一份09年美国大使馆的电报所隐含的对华食品战略
日期:2012年12月1日格林尼治标准时间+0800下午8时23分41秒
收件人::[email protected]
老顽童:
一份09年美国大使馆的电报中写道：While China has been rightly blamed for negligence in other instances regarding safety issues, the current application and safety assessment of biotechnology generally appears to have been done reasonably well with close attention paid to human, animal, and environmental impacts.
这意味着三年前美国的报告就已经明确无误承认了这样的事实，即：转基因粮食会带来严重的后果。为了误导中国对此类健康恶化的反思，相应的策略被这样制定，即：制造食品其他方面的安全问题与关注焦点。
而在国内发生的问题也不断印证了这样的策略，例如：三聚氰胺毒奶、面粉漂白剂添加剂、化学添加剂兑饮料、地沟油等等等等。
地沟油问题屡禁不止，而此问题成为公众焦点之时恰恰是转基因在中国布局之时。
最近又出现一个酒鬼酒添加塑化剂的事件。水果不易保鲜，添加防腐剂倒也情有可原，酒难道也存在防腐的问题么？在酒里添加有致癌作用的塑化剂，如果不放在西方对华实施人口削减战略的层面上看，实在是不可理解。
可见：美国为首的西方在国内买办们的配合下强行推广转基因主粮已有三年矣。
而在此三年中，国人的健康恶化空前到来：糖尿病发病率超10%，肾病发病率超10%且逐年上升。（有记者从第三军医大学某院肾内科了解到，仅2011年该院肾病就诊人数就有7.5万，血透5.1万，较往年增长率为18%和25%，远超GDP的增长率。而健康恶化不分穷富，在富人对肾脏活体器官的庞大需求下，器官非法采摘与贩卖催生了新的犯罪。某17岁青年为了个什么Ipad而出卖自己的肾脏正是在这种健康全面恶化的大背景下所催生的人间悲剧。）
同时，猝死的青年人逐年增多，甚至出现大学新生军训时被晒死的空前奇闻。
非但如此，种族的繁衍也开始出现空前危机：精子合格率逐年下降，育龄妇女不育数量达到空前5000万。（2012年，南京，有记者从市妇幼保健院获悉,参加孕检的男性精子质量合格率不足30%。）
而这一切均与转基因作物长时间喂食老鼠的实验结果不吻而合。
为了混淆中国决策者们对转基因的反思，三聚氰胺、面粉漂白剂、地沟油、塑化剂等等化工添加剂被秘密制造出来，并通过曝光吸引和转移公众视线。于是，作为主力的转基因消灭中国人的策略就在五花八门的有害添加剂的喧嚣掩护中被顺利地实施了。
在国内买办的配合下，可以预见未来的中国：癌症患者还会逐年上升。不孕不育还会逐年增多。中国儿童体质还将继续恶化。中国的猝死青年亦将逐年攀升。同时伴随着富人对活体器官需求的不断增多，中国的器官犯罪将媲美人口买卖，成为新的犯罪热点。
当量增加到一定程度时，伴随着新老接替的更新换代，体质一代不如一代中国人将面临毫不留情的种族灭绝。
老顽童，怎么办？
【老顽童读后回复：这也许是某种宿命。老顽童，很无奈。】
附文：
美国驻华大使电报原文全文
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中国悄然引领农业生物技术革命
2009-12-07 09:54
FM AME MBA SSY BEI JING
SEN SI TIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
BEI JING 00003263 001.3 OF 005
(U) This cable is Sensitive But Un classified. Please protect accordingly.
该电报敏感但不保密，请正确保护。
?1. (SBU) In early November 2009, China authorized the first commercialization of major biotech food crops. A government website confirmed their approval of phytase corn and Bt rice. Despite little fanfare, this will revolutionize China's agriculture and may be the global agricultural development of the decade. Successful utilization of plant biotechnology by millions of Chinese rice farmers will likely significantly defuse, if not end, debate about the safety of the technology in China and possibly the developing world. END SUMMARY.
2009年11月初，中国授权了第一个主要生技食用作物的商业化。政府网站确认他们批准了转植酸酶玉米和Bt水稻。虽然动静很小，这将在十年间给中国农业甚至可能是全球农业发展带来革命。成百万中国水稻农对植物生物技术的成功应用将可能在中国乃至可能是发展中世界，显著消除，如果不是终结，关于此项技术安全性的争论。
LITTLE FANFARE, MAJOR MOVE
?2. (SBU) On November 21, 2009, Beijing-based Origin Agritech announced that it is the first company to receive de-regulated status for genetically modified corn for planting in China. Confirmed by China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), Origin's phytase corn product received the final biosafety certificate that permits its domestic sale and marketing. China also granted a biosafety certificate to Huazhong University and Dr. Zhang Qifa for Bt rice. Reuters first announced the Bt rice news on November 27 and it was picked up by the Chinese media on November 30. On December 3, MOA posted formal confirmation of both authorizations on its website. The cultivation of corn will be limited to Shandong province and rice will be limited to Hubei province. Moreover, provincial seed registration procedures will likely prevent the first direct sales to farmers until at least the 2012 planting season.
2009年11月21日，北京Origin农业技术公司宣布其成为中国第一家获得解除管制状态的基因改造玉米用于种植的公司。由中国农业部(MOA)确认，Origin的转植酸酶玉米获得了最终生物安全认证，允许其国内市场销售。中国同时授予华中大学张启发博士Bt水稻的生物安全认证。路透社在11月27日首先报道了Bt水稻的消息，中国媒体11月30日报道。12月3日，中国农业部在其网站对两项认证予以正式确认。玉米种植将被限定于山东省，水稻种植将被限定在湖北省。另外，行政的种子注册程序将可能至少到2012年种植季前防止第一批种子直接销售给农民。
?3. (SBU) In 2008, seven million farmers grew biotech crops in China, about half of the global total. Chinese farmers grew biotech crops on 3.8 million hectares of land, making China the sixth largest producer of biotech crops by land area. Prior to this announcement, the list of genetically modified plants approved for planting in China included: cotton, tomato, sweet pepper, petunia, poplar, and papaya. Cotton and poplar trees are the only biotech plants grown on a large-scale in China. There is also limited production of biotech papaya. China also currently permits 28 varieties of biotech corn, cotton, canola, sugar beet, and soybean to be imported for processing.
在2008年， 中国有几百万农民种植生技作物，大约占全球的一半。中国农民在三百八十万公顷土地上种植生技作物，以面积计使得中国成为第六大生技作物生产国。在这项宣告 前，中国已批准种植的基因改造植物包括：棉花、西红柿、甜椒、矮牵牛花、杨树和番木瓜。仅有棉花和杨树这两种生技植物在中国大面积种植。还有有限产量的生 技番木瓜。中国最近也允许28个品种的生技作物进口加工，它们是玉米、棉花、加拿大油菜、甜菜和大豆。
CHINA ALREADY USES BIOTECH, WHAT'S THE BIG DEAL?
中国已经使用生物技术，有什么大不了?
?4. (SBU) China's record on biotechnology is already impressive, but the agricultural world has been waiting expectantly for China to decide how it would approach the application of plant biotechnology in food crops. Why is the deregulation of biotech corn and rice is a ground-breaking event in Chinese agriculture and possible the history of this technology? The answer is that China's application of plant biotechnology was narrow and omitted several key aspects of a country that intends to be a leader in the technology. There are three main reasons why current application has heretofore been considered "narrow": 1) avoiding non-food crops; 2) using only proven technology; and 3) avoiding decisions related to environmental safety.
中国在生物技术上的记录已让人印象深刻，但是农业世界已在期待中国决定怎样将植物生物技术应用于食用作物。为什么撤销对生技玉米和水稻的管制是中国农业一 个突破性事件并可能成为该技术的历史?答案是中国对植物生物技术的应用是狭窄的，并且缺少了想要成为该技术领跑者的几个关键方面。为什么现有应用在此以前 被认为“狭窄”有三条主要原因：1)避免非食用作物;2)仅使用已验证过的技术;3)避免有关环境安全的决策。
?5. (SBU) First, China's commercial use of the technology is almost exclusively limited to non-food plants. Focusing on non-food plants minimizes the need to analyze the impact on human health, thus reducing risk to regulators and the personal consequences of making an incorrect decision. In addition, food security concerns do not come into play if the crop fails to produce as advertised or various factors lead to yields that are less than conventional varieties. Biotech papaya is an exception, but a very minor crop that accounts for far less than 1 percent of total biotech planted area. In fact, this rationale also applies to phytase corn because it will not be used directly in human food.
第一，中国对该技术的商业应用几乎被严格限制在非食用作物上。致力于非食用作物上最大程度降低了分析对人体健康影响的需要，这样减小了对管理者的风险和个 人做出错误决定的后果。另外，如果作物未能产生如宣传那样，或多种因素导致低于传统品种的产量，也不会引起食品安全担忧。生技番木瓜是一个例外，但仅有非 常少的种植，远低于生物技术总种植面积的1%。事实上，这一理由也用于转植酸酶玉米，因为它不会被直接用于人的食物。
?6. (SBU) Second, the majority of the technology in use is proven technology, first tested and used in the United States. For example, the majority of the biotech planted area consists of a version of Roundup Ready cotton created in the United States and misappropriated for use in China. China's biotech papaya was also originally developed in the United States. Using proven technology also limits the risk taken by Chinese regulators, which makes these early deregulated events safe choices for hesitant bureaucrats.
第二，正在使用的主要技术是已被验证的技术，首先在美国得以测试和使用。例如，主要的生技种植面积由一种美国创造的抗农达棉花组成，在中国是不正当使用。 中国生技番木瓜也源自美国开发。使用已被验证的技术也降低了中国管理者的风险，这些技术使这些早期撤销管制的项目成为犹豫的官员们安全的选择。
?7. (SBU) Third, the current biotech agricultural crops are not native to China or have relatively unimportant wild relatives in China. This is a very important consideration. The stakes are far higher for regulators when dealing with plants that have wild, weedy cousins or where wild relatives are still important sources of genetic information for seed developers. Pollen drift is of particular importance in the debate about biotech rice in China and the rest of Asia. For this reason, the Chinese government poured extensive time and money into environmental risk analysis.
第三，现有生物技术农作物并非原产于中国或在中国有相对不重要的野生近缘种。这是非常重要的考虑。对管理者来说当处理的植物有野生的，杂草般的远亲或野生 近缘种仍然是育种时遗传信息的重要来源时，赌注变得更高。花粉漂移是中国及其它亚洲国家对生技水稻争论特别重要的一点。由此，中国政府倾注了大量时间和资 金于环境风险评估。
?8. (SBU) Though Chinese leaders have long stated that biotechnology can be safely used after proper evaluation, no large-scale commercially viable food crops were granted a safety certificate for the three political and scientific reasons mentioned above. Even though China has advanced research in all major crops and in dozens of traits, the Ministry of Agriculture has tabled previous biosafety certificate applications and prohibited certain advanced trials; this was notably the case for vitamin A enriched "golden rice." Many experts blamed the delay on risk-averse bureaucrats who wanted a zero-risk situation in terms of biosafety and press/public reaction in order to protect their careers.
虽然中国领导人早已宣称生物技术在适当评估后可以安全使用，却由于以上三条政策及科学原因，并没有大规模切实可商业化的食用作物被授予安全认证。即使中国已在所有主要作物及许多特性上拥有先进研究，农业部已搁置了早先的生物安全认证应用并禁止某些高级实验;这在富含维生素A的“金大米”一案中显而易见。许多专家批评不愿承担风险的官员，他们希望就生物安全和媒体/公众反应是零风险状态以保护他们的职业。
LOGJAM BROKEN
打破阻碍
?9. (SBU) Many Chinese senior researchers had been discouraged from further research and investment in plant biotechnology by the barriers faced by developers of food crops and of China-origin technologies. Cotton is one of the most agrochemical-intensive crops and Chinese researchers for years have shown the significant reduction in chemical use and improved worker health associated with biotech cotton. Despite cotton's obvious success, there was a feeling of frustration in the research community by 2008.
由于食用作物和中国自主技术开发商面临许多障碍，许多中国资深研究者已经对进一步研究和对植物生物技术投入上失去信心。棉花是农用化学品最集中使用的作物 之一，中国研究者已在多年中显示显著降低了与生技棉花相关的化学品的使用并促进了工人的健康。尽管棉花明显的成功，研究团队在2008年仍感到被挫败。
?10. (SBU) However, in early October 2009, local contacts reported to AgAttache that there was a private meeting between Premier Wen Jiabao and developers of high tech products, including agricultural products, to discuss these issues. He reportedly told the group that while China was a leading investor in biotechnology, it was failing to get new events to market. Wen went on to emphasize that state funded technology should not only be developed, but used as well. This message was seen as the "final word" on the subject and a strong signal to reluctant bureaucrats that they could and should move forward and begin approving biotech events without fear of career suicide if problems arose or there was negative public reaction.
然而，2009年十月上旬，当地联络人向AgAttache(agricultural attaché，农业使馆)报告，温家宝总理与高技术产品，包括农产品开发商举行了私下会谈以讨论这些项目。他据报道说虽然中国是生物技术的首要投资方，却未能向市场投入新产品。温继续强调国家资助的技术不仅应开发，并且要使用。这一信息被看作是该项目的“最终决定”并给予不情愿的官员们一个强烈的信号，使他们可以且应该推进和赞成生物技术项目，如果出现问题或负面的公众反应也不用担心职业生涯终结。
?11. (SBU) Chinese researchers in all agricultural fields have been encouraged by Wen Jiabao's support and the new commercializations. Not only does it mean that existing research can now accelerate, it also means that the Ministry of Agriculture will no longer be reluctant to distribute the billions of dollars that have been pledged to agricultural research. China will now likely forge ahead with many of the first generation products that provide benefits to producers and also second generation traits that are more consumer, plant stress and environment focused. During bilateral meetings, China has repeatedly emphasized that their top priority is drought-tolerant traits in corn and other food crops.
中国农业领域的研究者被官方的支持和新的商品化(项目)所鼓舞。不仅是因为它意味着现有研究可以加速，也表明农业部不再不情愿地分拨已许诺于农业研 究的数十亿美元。中国从此将可能加速推进许多给生产商带来利益的第一代产品，以及更多关注消费者、植物胁迫及环境的第二代产品。在双边会议中，中国已反复 强调在玉米及其它食用作物中，它们首要考虑的特性是抗旱。
?12. (SBU) Background regarding China's biotechnology research and regulatory process can be found in FAS China's Annual Biotechnology Report. The most recent update was published on August 3, 2009, and is labeled as GAIN Report CH9060. It can be found at www.fas.usda.gov.
关于中国生物技术研究和管理程序的背景资料可以在FAS(美国农业部外国农业服务处)中国年度生物技术报告中找到。最近的更新发布于2009年8月3日，标签为谷物报告GAIN Report CH9060，可在www.fas.usda.gov找到。
PRODUCERS EXPECTED TO BENEFIT FROM CHANGES
生产者设想从改变中获利
?13. (SBU) Bt technology has a long history of use in the United States, including Bt potatoes, Bt corn, Bt sweet corn, Bt sugar beet, and Bt alfalfa. In the case of Bt crops, the gene of interest produces a protein that kills harmful plant pests and allows growers can use Bt traits as an alternative to spraying insecticides. The -Bt delta endotoxin was selected for many crops because it is highly effective at controlling Lepidoptera larvae at the stage when they cause the most damage to the plant. The protein is very selective, generally not harming insects in other orders (such as beetles, flies, bees and wasps).
Bt技术在美国有很长的使用历史，包括Bt马铃薯、Bt玉米、Bt甜玉米、Bt甜菜及Bt苜蓿。在Bt玉米中，所需的基因产生一种蛋白能够杀死植物害虫，且种植者可以选择使用Bt特性作为一种可喷洒的杀虫剂。Bt德尔塔内毒素被选用于多种作物是因为其对鳞翅目幼虫在其对植物伤害最大时的高效控制。这种蛋白选择性强，一般不会伤害其它类型的昆虫(如甲虫、蝇类、蜜蜂及黄蜂)。
?14. (SBU) Phytase is currently used as an additive in animal feed to breakdown phytic acid in corn, which holds 60 percent of the phosphorus in corn. Phytase increases phosphorus absorption in animals by 60 percent. Phosphorus is an essential element for the growth and development of all animals, and plays key roles in skeletal structure and in vital metabolic pathways. Phytase, as an additive for animal feed, is mandatory in Europe, Southeast Asia, South Korea, Japan, and other regions for environmental purposes.
植酸酶现在被用于动物饲料添加剂以降解玉米中的植酸，它大约占玉米磷含量的60%。植酸酶使动物对磷的吸收增加60%。磷是动物生长发育的重要元素之一，在骨骼结构和重要代谢途径中扮演关键角色。在欧洲、东南亚、南韩、日本及其它地区，为环境目的在动物饲料中添加植酸酶是必须的。
?15. (SBU) Phytase transgenic corn, developed by and licensed by Origin from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science (CAAS) after seven years of study, can allow feed producers to eliminate the need to phytase and corn separately. It will also eliminate the need to mix the two ingredients together, thus saving time, machinery, and labor for feed producers.
植酸酶转基因玉米由来自中国科学院农科院(CAAS)的Origin经过七年研究后开发和许可，可使畜牧业者不再分别需要植酸酶和玉米，也不再需要将这两种配料混合，这样可为畜牧业者节省时间、机械及人工。
?16. (SBU) Origin's GMO phytase-producing corn is expected to reduce the need to add inorganic phosphate supplements to feed as the animals will directly absorb more phosphate. The replacement effect reduces feed cost. Additionally, inorganic phosphates may be contaminated with fluorine and heavy metal residues created in the manufacturing process. These fluorine and heavy metal residues in the feedstuff are toxic to animals and dangerous to humans.
Origin的产植酸酶玉米是设想降低在饲料中无机磷酸添加剂的需要，因为动物将直接吸收更多的磷酸盐。这一替代效果将减少饲料成本。另外，无机磷酸盐可以被工业生产中产生的氟和重金属残渣污染。这些饲料中的氟和重金属残留对动物是有毒的并对人有危害。
?17. (SBU) As described above, these traits are not directly related to yield. The benefits of these traits largely mean lower input costs for farmers (Bt rice) or the feed manufacturing chain (phytase corn), which ultimately benefit the farmer through lower input costs or a premium sales price. There will be some yield advantage to Bt rice because of reduced pest damage, but the primary yield attributes of the seed remain its conventionally-bred genetics.
如上所述，这些特性并不直接与产量相关。这些特性的好处主要意味着降低(Bt水稻)农民或饲料生产链(植酸酶玉米)的投入，这将最终通过降低投入成本或额外卖价使农民受益。Bt水稻将因为降低虫害有一些产量上的好处，但其基本产量仍归因于其传统育种的遗传基础。
NOT SO FAST - PRACTICAL IMPACT LIMITED FOR NOW
不会太快——现在实际的影响有限
?18. (SBU) While granting the biosafety certificate is a milestone in terms of public policy, it will likely be several years before these seeds are in the hands of farmers. First, seed companies will need to register each biotech seed variety with provincial authorities and prove stability and effectiveness. [Note. This requirement applies to conventional varieties as well. End Note.] Testing can take two years or more. Following provincial approval, the company will then need to replicate enough seed for commercial sale. As a result, Chinese farmers may not see these seeds on sale until the 2012 planting season or beyond. Though farmers and livestock producers may want to see the technology in fields sooner, this is a normal timeframe for the development and marketing of new seeds in China, conventional or biotech. Another puzzling limitation is that the crops were each authorized for planting in only one province, which will severely constrict their commercial viability if the scope of use is not later broadened. Sources suggest that this limitation was the trade-off for being the pioneering commercialization.
虽然从国家政策来说颁布生物安全证书是一个里程碑，却仍可能需要几年这些种子才能到农民手中。第一，种子公司将需要获得每一种不同生物技术种子的各省授权 并证明稳定性和有效性。【注：传统作物也要求申请。】测试需要两年或更多。在省级授权后，公司将需要为商业销售培育足够的种子。所以，中国农民可能直到2012年 耕种季节或更久都不能看到这些种子。虽然农民和畜牧业者可能想要尽早在田间看到这些技术，但这是新种子在中国培育和上市通常的时间窗，包括传统的或生物技 术改造的。另一个难解的限制是每一种作物仅在一省被授权种植，如果其后不扩大其使用范围，这将严重限制它们的商业活力。资料提供者建议这一限制是作为开创 性商业的平衡。
?19. (SBU) The commercialization of these crops in China could pose challenges for U.S. regulators, especially if China decides not to seek import approval. U.S. regulators have no/limited knowledge of these events and, despite Chinese assurances, the events could get into trade channels, thus raising the possibility that a biotech event unapproved for use in the Unites States is being imported.
这些作物的商品化可能对美国管理者带来挑战，尤其当中国不寻求进口准入时。对这些项目，尽管中国保证，但美国管理者没有或仅有有限的知识，这些项目可能进入贸易渠道，这样将增高美国已进口未经批准的生物技术项目的可能。
?20. (SBU) Chinese (whole grain) rice exports are about $24 million and corn exports are very minimal. However, rice and corn by-products are pervasive in small quantities as food ingredients in processed foods, which make up the bulk of Chinese exports of food products to the United States. This makes exports of corn or rice containing products much larger but also hard to precisely determine. Though trade is small, how will China deal with exports? Will the Chinese companies seek regulatory approval for their products in export markets like the United States? MOA has stated to AgAttache that foreign registration is the company/developer's responsibility, though they will provide some informational resources in a way similar to what FAS does for U.S. companies.
中国(整粒)大米出口大约两千四百万美元，玉米出口非常少。然而，大米和玉米作为配料或加工食品的副产品以小数量无处不在，这形成了中国对美国食品出口的 大部分。这使得含有玉米或大米的出口产品数量大且难于精确统计。虽然贸易量小，中国如何对待出口?中国公司是否也如美国一样对其在出口市场的产品寻求管理 上的授权?中国农业部已对AgAttache宣布外国(企业)注册是公司/开发商的责任，而他们将像FAS(美国农业部外国农业服务处)对美国公司一样提供一些信息资源。
?21. (SBU) China has already had problems in biosafety containment with experimental Bt rice, which is somewhat similar to the U.S. experience with biotech rice. According to the Chinese Government, there was "a case of illegal use" of Bt 63 rice in Hubei province in 2005 that resulted in the limited but unapproved planting of the rice in 2005 and 2006. Though China claims to have eliminated Bt rice from cultivation, it was detected in export shipments to Europe and New Zealand in 2007 and 2008. Thus, questions about China's next steps relating to export markets in terms of deregulation and potential certification of food products have significance for U.S. regulators and consumers. Discussions on this subject were initiated by U.S. biotechnology regulators during the 2009 U.S./China Biotechnology Working Group meeting.
中国在实验Bt水稻时已产生生物安全控制的问题，这一点与美国生物技术水稻的经验有些相似。根据中国政府(公布)，2005年在湖北省有Bt63水稻的“一例非法使用”导致2005和2006年有限的但未经批准的水稻种植。虽然中国宣称已取消Bt水稻种植，但在2007和2008年出口欧洲和新西兰的大米仍被检测到。由此，中国下一步有关出口市场就撤销管制及可能的食品认证的问题对美国管理者和消费者有巨大影响。美国生物技术管理者开始在2009年美中生物技术工作组会议期间讨论这一主题。
PRESS NOT INVITED SO FAR
迄今为止媒体未被邀请
?22. (SBU) Surprisingly, the news about phytase corn was not even initially released in China and Bt rice not mentioned at all. The corn news was released by Origin for benefit of its US shareholders and Reuters announced the Bt rice event. The Origin CEO told AgAttache that MOA recommended that he not release the news, though he finally persuaded them to the valuable nature of the news for his investors. MOA is very conservative and risk averse when it comes to biotechnology policy and controversy and the Chinese have very close reign on negative comments about biotechnology in agriculture. [Note. MOA publically ignored the EU complaints about Bt rice contamination of export shipments and, with the exception of a subdued Greenpeace, the Chinese press did not even run the story. End Note.]
令人惊讶的是，(转)植酸酶玉米的消息甚至并未在一开始就在中国出现，而Bt大米则根本未被提及。玉米的消息是为了美国股东的利益由Origin发布，而路透社宣布了Bt大米的消息。Origin的CEO告诉AgAttache，中国农业部(MOA)建议他不要公布这个消息，虽然他最终说服他们这条消息对他的投资者的价值。中国农业部在生物技术政策和争议上是非常保守的和风险反感的，并且中国人对农业中生物技术的负面评价更接近主导地位。【注：中国农业部公开忽略欧盟对出口的Bt大米污染的抱怨，然而，除了不太显著的绿色和平组织，中国媒体甚至没有跟进此事。】
?23. (SBU) However, given that rice is such a staple part of most Chinese citizens' diets, a public campaign to promote Bt rice seems inevitable either now or when the rice hits the consumer market. Given the high profile of certain rice researchers/academicians and the developer Zhang Qifa, China is likely to roll out a high-visibility campaign to laud the achievements of its own researchers and smiling peasants whose health will improve due to using less pesticides. The first indications of a tentative press rollout are a series of small articles published in the People's Daily appearing on December 1 and 3.
然而，考虑到大米是大多数中国人的主食，现在或当Bt大米进入消费市场时，促进Bt大米的公共游说可能不可避免。考虑到某些大米研究者/学术人员及开发者张启发的鲜明姿态，中国可能铺展开一项高调的游说活动，赞扬其自主研究者的功绩，以及由于减少了农药使用而促进健康的微笑的农民。媒体首次试探性展示的第一个迹象是在人民日报十二月1号和3号发表的一系列小文章。
COMMENT - GLOBAL SIGNIFICANCE
评价——全球意义
?24. (SBU) This move by China may prove to be the concluding chapter in the initial debate about plant biotechnology. Though around for decades, various actors have promoted doubts about safe use of the technology, especially in developing countries. Though almost thirty countries plant 140 million hectares each year, the big developing countries have not moved into biotech food crops in a significant way with the exception of large food exporters. As China moves to start using plant biotechnology, largely for domestic purposes, the size and interconnectedness of the country will expand the sheer numbers of farmers growing biotech crops, consumers eating the derived food, and products developed outside of the multinational technology companies. China's sheer size encourages other developing countries to follow its lead and marginalizes those blindly opposed to the technology itself. If the indications are correct and India also approves biotech food crops, the world will be a much more receptive place for the safe application of the technology than just a few years ago.
中国的这一举动可能成为有关植物生物技术争论起始阶段的一个结束章节。虽然几十年来，多方参与者，尤其在发展中国家已发起对安全使用这项技术的质疑。虽然接近三十个国家每年种植140百万公顷(1.4亿 公顷)，但大的发展中国家并未显著地将生物技术用于食用作物，而仅是用于食品出口。当中国开始使用植物生物技术，主要用于国内用途，(则由于)国家的庞大 及内部联系，充足的农民种植生物技术作物，消费者食用产出的食物，以及外部跨国生物技术公司开发的产品将被扩大。中国的庞大鼓励其他发展中国家在其带领下 边缘化那些针对该技术的盲目反对。如果这些迹象是确切的，且印度也批准生物技术用于食用作物，世界对这项技术安全应用的接受程度将比几年前大大增加。
?25. (SBU) However, forging ahead with the promise of biotechnology is predicated on China's safe use of it. While China has been rightly blamed for negligence in other instances regarding safety issues, the current application and safety assessment of biotechnology generally appears to have been done reasonably well with close attention paid to human, animal, and environmental impacts. China's increasing investment in this area and its potential impact on the U.S. consumer and environment suggest that cooperation with China grows more important as it becomes a global leader in this technology.
然而，推进生物技术应用前景基于在中国的安全使用。相对于中国由于在其它安全问题事例的忽略而被正当地指责，现有生物技术的应用和安全评估密切关注对人、动物及环境的影响，似乎大体上已被相当合理地完成。中国增加在这个方面的投入及其对美国消费者和环境的潜在影响提示，当中国在这项技术上全球领先时与中国合作逐渐变得更加重要。
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